Reform overtakes Labour in poll as Burnham leaves country

A new poll puts Reform UK ahead of Labour for the first time since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, as the PM departed for an early holiday. GB News reports the survey shows Reform in the lead, with the timing coinciding with Burnham's departure from the UK.

The collapse in Labour's position follows the government's decision to proceed with early releases under the previous administration's prison policy. Novara Media reports Burnham has now cut the early release programme short, but not before killings involving freed prisoners prompted widespread criticism. The Mirror attributes the polling damage directly to Nigel Farage, arguing he "created the by-election chaos" and should answer for the cost.

The machinery here is inherited. Early release was a Conservative policy designed to manage prison overcrowding - a problem decades in the making. Burnham's government implemented releases already scheduled, then reversed course under pressure. The Mirror proposes tax raids on banks and oil companies to fund alternatives, though it does not specify how quickly such revenue could materialise or whether it would match the scale required.

What to watch: whether Labour's position stabilises once Burnham returns, and whether the reversal on early releases holds or becomes another U-turn blamed on the previous government. Polls this early in a premiership are notoriously volatile, but momentum is a currency in politics - and Reform now holds it.