Reform falls to third as Tories recover ground in new polling

Nigel Farage's Reform UK has dropped to third place in a new poll, with the Conservatives moving ahead for the first time since the party's July collapse. GB News reports Reform now sits behind both Labour and the Tories, while the Daily Express frames the same figures around Farage's declining chances of reaching Downing Street.

The movement marks a reversal of Reform's post-election momentum, when the party briefly overtook the Conservatives in some surveys. The Tories' recovery comes under their new leadership, though the party remains well behind Labour in most national polling. Neither outlet gives Reform's current vote share, but both agree on the direction of travel.

Polling at this distance from a general election measures mood more than seats - the gap between vote share and parliamentary representation has burned Reform before, and will again under first-past-the-post. The 2024 election delivered Reform five MPs on 14% of the vote; the Lib Dems took 72 seats on 12%. The arithmetic hasn't changed. A party surging in the surveys can still arrive at the count with a handful of seats if its vote spreads thin.

Farage has spent the summer positioning Reform as the opposition to Labour, while the Conservatives reorganised. If this poll holds, that claim becomes harder to make. The next test is the local elections in May, when vote share converts to council seats and the story moves from hypothetical to counted.