Burnham bounce in the polls as Labour and Reform fight double by-election

The Daily Mail reports a "Burnham bounce" in the latest polling, with Labour ahead since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister in late July. The paper asks whether he will call a snap election. Meanwhile, GB News says Labour and Reform are locked in a double by-election battle as voters go to the polls today.

The Sun reports Nigel Farage says he would still accept a five million pound cryptocurrency donation despite an ongoing investigation. The Daily Express carries two stories: one claiming the Prime Minister is under pressure to call a COBRA meeting as the UK heads for its hottest summer on record, another accusing him of "re-traumatising victims" through constant U-turns. The Guardian reports probation staff have voted to strike, dealing a blow to the government's early release plans.

Every new Prime Minister gets a bounce. The country briefly believes the new broom might sweep differently. The bounce usually lasts until the first difficult decision - and Burnham has already made several. The early release scheme is unpopular. The probation strike suggests the machinery doesn't believe in it either. If the polls are moving in his favour despite that, it tells you more about the opposition than about the government.

The snap election question is the interesting one. A Prime Minister who calls an election off the back of a bounce is either very confident or very worried about how long the bounce will last. Watch the by-election results tonight. If Labour holds both seats, the speculation will intensify. If Reform takes one, it dies.